Session 9 - Seminar on research models and methods in economics

Antoine ROGIER, LARSH-UPHF
"Tourism impacts of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on a regional scale: measuring arrivals, overnight stays but also a crowding-out effect"

The presentation will be divided into two parts.
The first will be devoted to a presentation of the thesis, advances, as well as objectives and expected results. It will set the scene for the second part, which will be devoted to the presentation of a draft article on the regional tourism impact of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

The aim of this paper-in-progress, which will form an integral part of my thesis, is to measure (through both descriptive and econometric methods) the impact or otherwise of the 2024 Summer Olympics on arrivals and overnight stays within French metropolitan regions (but also the behaviors of French residents departing from their accommodation).

For this purpose, I have separated the French regions into two groups:

- Regions that have organized the most Paris 2024 Olympic Games events (Ile-de-France and Hauts-de-France)
- Regions with few or no events

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The database for the number of arrivals and visitors comes from Orange with the Flux Vision Tourisme service. This service provides a representation of arrivals and overnight stays in a region on a week-by-week basis (from 2022 to 2024), including the origin of visitors (department by department).
Based on these facts and the graphs produced, we can establish the following hypotheses (tested using auto-regressive and moving-average models):

H1: An increase in the number of visitors occurred in the two main Games regions during the JO period in 2024.
H2: Residents of the main regions postponed their departure to 2024 until the first week after the Games.
H3: Peak summer visitor numbers in tourist regions postponed to the first post-Games week their departure in 2024.